How VCs Think About Returns
Venture capital follows a power law: a small number of investments generate the vast majority of returns. The top 10% of investments typically generate 90%+ of fund returns. This means VCs look for companies that could be 10ร or 100ร outcomes, not 2โ3ร outcomes.
For founders, understanding VC return expectations explains investor behaviour: they'd rather fund a company with a 10% chance of a 50ร return than a company with a 90% chance of a 3ร return. VCs need fund-returning outcomes; moderate successes don't move the needle.
3ร
Minimum "success" for most VC funds
10ร+
Fund-returning single investment threshold
25%
Target net IRR for top-quartile VC
7โ10 yr
Typical venture holding period